Last Minute Oscar Predictions and Hopes

Today the awards season for 2020 comes to a close with the biggest night of the year for film. In this post I want to document some of my predictions for some major and technical categories along with what I would rather win if there is a difference. Predicted winners will be in bold, with notes afterward of who I think should win.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh, Little Women (My darling and one true winner)

Margot Robbie, Bombshell

This year in the acting awards, it feels like we are handing out three “it’s time” awards to three people who are some of the most gifted performers of their generation and giving an award to someone who has already won in a mediocre movie, but that’s for another time. Laura Dern is incredible in Marriage Story, she gets the Noah Baumbach version of a set piece and is doing a whole lot. I love Laura Dern and I love this performance, but may we all be struck dead if we ignore just how good Florence Pugh is in Little Women. Florence Pugh gets to lay it all out on the table; earlier this year she showed how capable she was at displaying so much emotion with her face in Midsommar, but in Little Women she gets to also raise her voice and beg for attention and that is just beautiful. Congrats to Laura Dern, we love you so much and you deserved this long ago, but it kills me to not award Florence Pugh.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Al Pacino, The Irishman

Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

This is a no brainer. Brad Pitt has swept the awards circuit, everyone loves him, he’s the only person in the category to have never one, and he is giving the best performance in the category. Crown my king. Being that this feels so locked in, it worries me the most and might crush me if he loses. If I had to pick someone to play spoiler, Pesci feels like the most likely spoiler. He is stunning in The Irishman and he is in his first live action feature since 2010, so the Academy may award him for coming out of obscurity.

Actress in a Leading Role

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (My winner)

Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Renée Zellweger, Judy

I’m baffled at why this performance is winning so much. All love to Renée and to Judy Garland, but this movie isn’t very good and in comparison to ScarJo or Saoirse, I don’t understand how voters could award this performance. Renée is a beautiful singer as well as a talented actress and I will never slander her performances in Bridget Jones, Jerry Maguire, or Shark Tale, I want to give all respect to who she is as a performer, but come on y’all. Scarlett is giving the best performance of her career in Marriage Story, bringing up all her own painful experiences in order to lay it all bare in front of the audience. Saoirse Ronan is the greatest actor of her generation and has been nominated four times before she turns 26. She’s operating a Meryl like level in terms of performances and recognition of said performances. And yet she will lose again, this time to a good performance in a decent movie that no one cared about. This also seems like the category amongst the acting categories for the most potential for upset, so look out, maybe this post will have aged horribly come tomorrow morning.

Actor in a Leading Role

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

Adam Driver, Marriage Story (My winner)

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Do you guys remember back in July when Leo gave the best performance of his career, but because he already won for climbing inside a horse carcass, the voting bodies have basically ignored him for all of awards season? Yeah, what an odd occurrence. Listen, I’ve said this to basically everyone I know who wants to talk with me about Joker, Joaquin is a genius actor who has been snubbed time and time again, but this isn’t the one. He is brilliant in a film that I think just isn’t very effective and thinks it is way smarter than it actually is, but we can’t give out make up awards. Adam Driver is also giving the performance of a life time that is right up the alley of the Academy, but because they were too blind to award Joaquin for The Master they feel the need to make it up to him. Congrats Joaquin, for all of the failures inside Joker you are still a genius performer who has given a number of beautiful, thoughtful acceptance speeches throughout your campaign.

Cinematography

The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto

Joker, Lawrence Sher

The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke

1917, Roger Deakins

Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, Robert Richardson

Honestly, what else is there to say when it comes to 1917? I reviewed the film after it had its wide release and it is truly an immensely satisfying visual spectacle. Deakins is my favorite cinematographer, a true master of his craft and visionary. He is what makes 1917 great and he elected to shoot the film in the most athletic and grueling way imaginable, so good on him. If I could have anyone else win, I think I would really love to see Robert Richardson or Jarin Blaschke win. Their films are beautiful visual artworks in different ways. The way Richardson shows 1969 Los Angeles and its vibrancy makes me emotional for a time I never experienced in a place I’ve never been. Jarin Blaschke is just brilliant and seemingly a sadist for shooting in unusual aspect ratios on old lenses in one of the toughest shooting locations possible in Nova Scotia.

Film Editing

Ford v Ferrari, Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland

The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker

Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles

Joker, Jeff Groth

Parasite, Yang Jinmo

The story, performances, cinematography, and production design are the Parasite train, but it is in the editing that we find the engine of the film. Yang Jinmo helps drive the films Hitchcock-ian feeling of tension along with the high wire act that the Kim family has put together in order to make their way out of poverty. The partnership between Director Bong and Yang Jinmo is perfect and they never take their foot off the gas in Parasite so that the audience feels the same fear that everything could fall apart at any moment. Honestly, why doesn’t Parasite have like thirteen nominations or something?

Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman, Screenplay by Steve Zaillian

Jojo Rabbit, Screenplay by Taika Waititi

Joker, Written by Todd Phillips and Scott Silver

Little Women, Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig (My winner)

The Two Popes, Written by Anthony McCarten

I have to be honest here, I have no idea who will win these screenplay awards, and for that I feel like I have failed you. I have a distinct feeling it will be Jojo because there’s been a massive outpouring of love for Taika and this film. With that though, I think Adapted Screenplay will be the only major award that Jojo Rabbit receives. Which is still something to be admired, the screenplay is what makes this film and to be recognized for that will be great. All that to say, Greta is still my winner. Adding in so much outside information from Louisa May Alcott’s life and experience, shifting the film around to bounce between two time periods, and making people actually sympathetic to Amy are all reasons that this award belongs to Little Women. It is brilliantly written and every line reading is a reminder of how much Greta dedicated herself to this film. Greta is the GOAT.

Original Screenplay

Knives Out, Written by Rian Johnson

Marriage Story, Written by Noah Baumbach

1917, Written by Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns

Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, Written by Quentin Tarantino (My winner)

Parasite, Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho

If I didn’t know anything about Adapted Screenplay, I’m basically firing into the dark here. Frankly I’m just playing process of elimination in order to come to Parasite. The Academy seems to really like Parasite, but not enough to give it the highest honor. So I think they will award what the Academy deems “less important” awards to the foreign film everyone adores and give the “big boys” to the films they seem to think are more domestic Oscar fare. Bong Joon Ho is a self proclaimed control freak, and his attention to detail in his script, his direction, the homes in the film, and his actors performances are unparalleled. Director Bong, incapacitate me with shaved peach fuzz. While I’ve spent this time talking about how much I love Parasite, I have to show love to my friend (not actually my friend) Quentin. I recently rewatched Once Upon a Time.. in the theater and I was reminded that it was a perfect film that is dependent upon its screenplay. I don’t know what else to say about the writing in a Tarantino movie that hasn’t already been said before. I would love for Quentin to win his third Best Original Screenplay because I share his hope that one day they will rename the award to the Quentin.

Best Director

The Irishman, Martin Scorsese

Joker, Todd Phillips

1917, Sam Mendesr

Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino

Parasite, Bong Joon Ho (My winner)

The academy loves Sam Mendes. He’s already won for America Beauty and he is almost certain to win again for 1917 because not only does the Academy love him, they love war movies. I don’t really want to talk about 1917 right now though, I want to say why I’m so excited and yet heartbroken for Parasite. This year is the first year in history a South Korean film has been nominated for anything at the Oscars. Not only was it nominated for Best International Film, but a whole slew of other awards. Bong joins a group of only three other people of Asian descent nominated for Best Director. Parasite is one of only three Asian productions nominated for Best Picture (Ismail Merchant was nominated three times, though those films weren’t Asian productions, but rather produced by an Indian man operating out of London). These are all incredibly momentous and exciting because Parasite is just that good. This is a reparation or a pity award, Parasite truly is one of the very best of the year and worthy of its praise.

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

1917

Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

Parasite (My winner)

Okay hear me out. The Oscars are built on the preferential ballot, and I have a distinct feeling that no film got 50 percent of number one votes outright, so as they begin to move through the ballots, they’ll find a lot of Once Upon a Time love with it being folks number two. I think as the voters moved through the preferential ballot and films started to drop off, it built on Once Upon a Time stock and it will be best picture. This is my Howard Ratner three way parlay in order to award my friend (not actually my friend) Quentin his first Best Picture. Parasite is my favorite film of the year, though not without some serious deliberating in my room whether or not Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood was actually my number one, but it just doesn’t seem to stand a chance to win Best Picture. The Academy is quite old and quite white, and they aren’t historically fond of Asian films, both in not nominating them and not awarding the few they do nominate. Parasite deserves more love from The Academy, but for now, I will celebrate it’s success and nominations.

The Oscars are upon us, and I’m sure none of these takes will be correct, so if you want to see my life reactions, follow me on twitter and instagram @redrankin. Movies are important and very enjoyable, seek out more movies that aren’t what you would traditionally watch.